Evidence against Instagram getting video this week? The second sentence in Facebook's press-event invitation: "Join us for coffee and learn about a new product." That hints at more than simply new capabilities for an existing app.
Both rumours could be right, even if only one of them becomes hard fact on Thursday. But it would be entirely unsurprising if Facebook isn't thinking hard about how to do more with video on its service.
Yet video remains something of an afterthought for Facebook, particularly in its smartphone apps: on iPhone, you still upload a video by tapping a button marked "Photo" for example.
Facebook could go the Vine route and launch a standalone shortform video-sharing app, much like it released Facebook Camera in May 2012 as a way to test photography features before rolling them into its main app.